On January 23, 2025, the India Meteorological Department issued a stark weather alert: cold wave conditions were likely in isolated pockets of Himachal Pradesh, while East Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, and parts of Bihar braced for dense, choking fog that could disrupt travel for hours. The forecast, released at 3:05 AM UTC, painted a picture of a country under winter’s grip—not with snow, but with chilling winds and hazy, life-slowing air.
Temperature Drop Across the North
Over the next three days, minimum temperatures across Northwest India were expected to fall by 2–4°C, a seemingly small number with outsized consequences. In places like Chandigarh, where the overnight low was forecast at 11.82°C, that drop meant frost on rooftops, frozen pipes in rural homes, and schoolchildren bundled in layers before sunrise. Meanwhile, Haryana saw its own chill: a predicted low of 12.29°C, a 3°C drop from just two days prior. The India Meteorological Department noted these changes were not anomalies—they were part of a broader pattern tied to persistent northwest surface winds pulling cold air down from the Himalayas.
Fog That Buries the Day
But it wasn’t just the cold. The real danger was visibility. By dawn on January 23, drivers in East Uttar Pradesh were navigating through fog so thick that streetlights became ghostly orbs. The IMD warned of “dense to very dense fog” persisting through early morning hours, a condition that had already grounded over 12 flights at Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi the previous day. The fog wasn’t confined to one region—it stretched from East Rajasthan to Jharkhand, lingering until the 24th. For farmers in the Gangetic plains, it meant delayed harvests. For commuters, it meant hours-long delays on the Grand Trunk Road.
Air Quality: A Silent Partner in the Crisis
As temperatures fell, so did air circulation—and with it, air quality. In Chandigarh, the Air Quality Index hit 136, classified as “moderate” but dangerously close to “unhealthy for sensitive groups.” Haryana wasn’t far behind at 100. The Hindustan Times reported clear skies during the day, but that was misleading. Beneath the sun, fine particulate matter—PM2.5—was trapped near the ground by temperature inversions, a phenomenon where cold air sits under warmer air like a lid. Children with asthma, the elderly, and outdoor workers were told to limit exposure. One pediatrician in Ludhiana told reporters: “We’ve seen a 40% spike in wheezing cases since Monday. It’s not the cold—it’s the air.”
Regional Variations and the Warnings That Matter
The IMD’s forecast wasn’t uniform. While the north shivered, Kerala and Tamil Nadu saw near-normal temperatures. Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh were largely unaffected. But in the hills—Kashmir, Ladakh, and Gilgit-Baltistan—the cold was more extreme, with snowfall expected in higher altitudes. The IMD’s ANNEXURE III warned authorities to act on “ORANGE AND RED COLOUR warnings,” especially in urban centers and hilly regions where infrastructure is fragile. Emergency shelters were being readied in Dehradun and Srinagar.
What’s Next? The Forecast Beyond January 24
By January 25, the IMD expects the cold wave to weaken in Himachal Pradesh, but fog may linger over the Indo-Gangetic Plain through the weekend. The agency cautioned that “as the lead period increases, forecast accuracy decreases”—a polite way of saying uncertainty grows after three days. Still, models suggest another cold surge could arrive by February 1, potentially worse than this one. Farmers in Punjab are already preparing to cover their wheat crops. City officials in Kolkata and Patna are stockpiling oxygen cylinders and warm blankets.
Why This Matters Beyond the Weather Report
This isn’t just another winter forecast. It’s a stress test for India’s public health and transport systems. With over 1.4 billion people, even a 2°C dip can mean thousands more hospital visits. The IMD’s data shows these cold spells are becoming more frequent—three such events occurred in January 2024 alone. Climate scientists point to Arctic oscillations and declining snowpack in the Himalayas as contributing factors. But for now, the people on the ground aren’t waiting for theories. They’re wrapping their children in extra blankets, checking their heaters, and praying the fog lifts before school buses roll out.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the cold wave affect children and the elderly in North India?
Children and the elderly are especially vulnerable during cold waves because their bodies struggle to regulate temperature. In Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, hospitals reported a 35–40% increase in respiratory admissions during the 2024 cold spell. Hypothermia cases, though rare, spiked in rural areas without proper heating. Health advisories urge keeping indoor temperatures above 18°C and avoiding early morning exposure when fog traps pollutants.
Why is dense fog worse in East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar than in other regions?
The Indo-Gangetic Plain, especially East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, has high humidity from river systems and heavy agricultural residue burning. When cold air settles over this moist layer, it forms persistent fog. Unlike coastal regions where wind disperses fog, these areas are landlocked with little breeze, allowing fog to linger for 12–16 hours daily.
What do the IMD’s ORANGE and RED warnings mean for local authorities?
ORANGE means “be prepared”—emergency services should mobilize, schools consider closures, and transport hubs prepare delays. RED means “take action”—evacuations may begin in flood-prone hill towns, hospitals activate cold-weather protocols, and power grids are monitored for overload. In 2023, Himachal Pradesh activated its RED alert for the first time in five years, closing 17 mountain roads and deploying thermal vans to remote villages.
Is the poor air quality linked to the cold weather?
Yes. Cold temperatures create temperature inversions, trapping pollutants near the ground. In Chandigarh and Haryana, stubble burning in Punjab has worsened PM2.5 levels, and with no wind to disperse them, AQI climbs. The 136 reading in Chandigarh is equivalent to smoking half a cigarette per day over time. Health experts say prolonged exposure increases risks of bronchitis and heart attacks.
How accurate are the IMD’s forecasts beyond January 24?
The IMD cautions that forecast accuracy drops significantly after 72 hours. While models suggest another cold spell by February 1, details remain uncertain. Historical data shows January cold waves in North India have varied in intensity by up to 3°C in past years. Authorities are advised to prepare for the worst-case scenario while monitoring updates every 12 hours, especially for fog and temperature departures shown in ANNEXURE IV.
What long-term trends are scientists observing with winter weather in India?
Researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology note that while overall winter temperatures have risen slightly since 1980, extreme cold events are becoming more frequent in the northwest. This paradox is linked to Arctic warming disrupting the polar vortex, sending cold air south. The 2025 event fits this pattern: colder pockets within a warmer trend. Adaptation—better insulation, public shelters, air quality alerts—is now a critical part of India’s climate resilience strategy.
